Politico’s Ben White questioned whether a bad quarterly GDP number on Thursday would mean the U.S. is heading for a recession.
Anticipation for the GDP report is high because if data shows a contraction, that would be the second consecutive quarter with negative growth, which is how a recession is defined. White published an analysis of the potential news that, according to the publication’s Twitter account, could be "possibly inaccurate."
"Set your alarms: Tomorrow we get the first, possibly inaccurate and certain to be revised reading of U.S. economic performance in the second quarter of this deeply weird economic year — one metric to measure if we're in a recession," Politico’s Twitter account read.
The article continued to make light of the threat of recession in its follow-up paragraph.
BIDEN WHITE HOUSE TALKING POINTS REDEFINING RECESSION QUICKLY EMBRACED BY MEDIA OUTLETS
"We tease. But just a bit. Because it is actually a big deal whether the reading shows the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, grew by a touch or declined by a hair in the second quarter. If it’s the latter, which many but certainly not all economists expect, it would be the second straight quarter of shrinking GDP. That’s one, though not the only definition of, (cue scary music) RECESSION!" White wrote.
Like other media pundits, White argued that the traditional definition of recession, described as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, is not the "official" description of the term.
White wrote, "This is where it gets a bit confusing for the non-econ-obsessed, so hang with me until we get to the politics. Because technically the White House would be correct. Two declines in a row is one classic hallmark of recession. But as I’ve noted in this space before, there is no official definition of recession in the U.S. beyond a broad decline in economic activity spread over time."
However, he acknowledged that a recession could be possible and lead to a political issue for Democrats as Republicans pounce on the issue.
"Still, it’s a huge deal politically. Republicans are salivating at the opportunity to take a negative number, cast aside any of the wonky nuances, and declare the ‘Biden Recession’ well underway. Plenty of news outlets may treat it that way as well," White wrote.
White previously argued that the White House’s suggestion that two quarters of shrinking GDP would not make a recession on Twitter.
"The White House is pretty obviously right that even two quarters of shrinking GDP would not show the economy is currently in recession. Getting people to understand that and the nuances of our strange, vexing, economic moment is just really hard. By me," White tweeted.
Other social media users soon pointed out that White previously defined a recession of as two shrinking economic quarters on both Twitter and his articles in Politico.
"IHS just downgraded first quarter growth to -2.1% others are also going negative. The second quarter will be down by double digits. All of this just means we are in a recession right now," White tweeted back in March 2020.
Back in June, White also warned of a potential recession writing "And while we may not be in one yet (though it’s possible we are), I’m sorry to report that the conditions are ripe for a slide in gross domestic product growth that lasts at least two quarters, the technical definition of recession."
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Despite economic concerns and record-level inflation, President Biden argued on Monday that he doesn’t think the U.S. will come into a recession.
