TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index: IMX Score Further Lowers in November

Clients were net sellers of equities overall, with net buying only in the Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Utilities sectors

The Investor Movement Index^® (IMX^SM) decreased to 4.17 in November, down from 4.25 in October. The IMX is TD Ameritrade’s proprietary, behavior-based index, aggregating Main Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors actually were doing and how they were positioned in the markets.

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The reading for the four-week period ending November 25, 2022 ranks “low” compared to historic averages.

“It’s not unusual to see retail investors reducing exposure to the markets toward the end of the year, which is sometimes influenced by risk moderation tax plays, a desire to take profits or other factors,” said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist, TD Ameritrade. “But overall, it’s clear that clients continued to keep exposure low and take a mindful, risk-off approach in November. If predictions are correct and inflation concerns ease as market volatility moderates, we may see sentiment shift in the months ahead as optimism for 2023 takes hold.”

At the beginning of the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report showcased a jobs market that showed signs of moderating, easing concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue on its aggressive path of monetary tightening. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on the morning of November 10th painted a picture of cooling inflation and, in response, equity markets immediately surged, culminating in what was the third-largest points gain in the history of the S&P 500. After that critical session, the equity markets mostly traded sideways until the Thanksgiving holiday led to reduced trading activity and volumes. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) collapsed in November, closing at 20.57—its lowest level since mid-August—possibly indicating that market participants expect calmer trading waters going forward. U.S. Treasury markets continued to drive headlines during the November period, but the 10-year yield eased lower, finishing under 3.7%. The strength of the U.S. Dollar has been a major story in 2022, but it shifted in November as the U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since mid-August, easing currency pressures globally. Energy markets also eased inflation concerns as crude oil commodity futures fell over 13% during the period.

Despite being net sellers of equities overall, TD Ameritrade clients did find individual names to buy during the period, including:

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
• Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (TSM)
• Intel Corp. (INTC)
• Apple Inc. (AAPL)
• Meta Platforms Inc. (META)

Names sold during the period included:

• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
• Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
• American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
• United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL)
• Boeing Co. (BA)

Millennial Buys & Sells

TD Ameritrade Millennial clients reduced exposure during the November period, and they were net sellers of equities, mirroring the overall TD Ameritrade client population.

Despite being net sellers of equities overall, TD Ameritrade Millennial clients were actually net buyers of two S&P sectors: Consumer Discretionary and Financials. Both TD Ameritrade Millennial clients and the overall TD Ameritrade client population bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) as the semiconductor giant surged over 30% during the period, spurred by strong October sales growth. Also like the overall TD Ameritrade client population, TD Ameritrade Millennial clients were net buyers of another major semiconductor company, Intel (INTC), which was up just under 1% during the November period. However, as NVIDIA (NVDA) surged over 17% and reported earnings during the November period, both the TD Ameritrade Millennial client population and the overall TD Ameritrade client population saw this an opportunity to sell into the chip maker’s recent strength and reduce exposure.

Although crude oil fell over 13% during the November period, Exxon Mobil (XOM) was able to inch just over 2% higher, and TD Ameritrade Millennial clients saw this divergence as an opportunity to reduce exposure in the energy giant. Airlines fell out of favor with both TD Ameritrade Millennial clients and the TD Ameritrade overall client population and clients reduced exposure in American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL). TD Ameritrade Millennial clients also were net sellers of Delta Airlines (DAL).

About the IMX

The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client base of funded accounts, which includes all accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.

For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including historical IMX data going back to January 2010; to view the full report from November 2022, or to sign up for future IMX news alerts, please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the thinkorswim^® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold. All investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before investing.

Past performance of a security, strategy, or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success. Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade.

About TD Ameritrade

TD Ameritrade provides investing services and education to self-directed investors and registered investment advisors. A leader in U.S. retail trading, we leverage the latest in cutting edge technologies and one-on-one client care to help our clients stay on top of market trends. Learn more by visiting www.tdameritrade.com.

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