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The following is a transcript of a presentation given by W. Edmund Clark, President and Chief
Executive Officer of The Toronto-Dominion Bank, at the Citigroup Financial Services Conference on
January 30, 2007.
TRANSCRIPT OF ED CLARKS PRESENTATION AT
CITIGROUP FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE
JANUARY 30, 2007
DISCLAIMER
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TRANSCRIPT IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE
TORONTO-DOMINION BANKS (TD) PRESENTATION AT THE CITIGROUP FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE AND
WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS,
OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALL. IN NO WAY DOES
TD ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION
PROVIDED ON TDS WEB SITE OR IN THIS TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE CONFERENCE CALL
ITSELF AND TD BANKNORTHS AND TDS SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
This transcript contains forward-looking statements. Such statements include, but are not limited
to, statements relating to anticipated financial and operating results, and to plans, objectives,
expectations and intentions and other statements including words such as anticipate, believe,
plan, estimate, expect, intend, will, should, may, and other similar expressions.
Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of TD Bank Financial Groups
management and involve a number of significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ
materially from the results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. The following factors,
among others, could cause or contribute to such material differences: changes in general business
and economic conditions in Canada, the United States and other relevant jurisdictions, as well as
the effect of changes in monetary policy in these jurisdictions and changes in the foreign exchange
rates for the currencies of these jurisdictions; the performance of financial markets and interest
rates; increased competition and its effect on pricing, spending, third-party relationships and
revenues; the risk of new and changing legislation and regulation in the U.S., Canada and other
relevant jurisdictions; the accuracy and completeness of information received on customers and
counterparties; the development and introduction of new products and services in markets; the
development of new distribution channels and the ability to realize increased revenue from these
channels; changes in accounting policies and methods, including uncertainties associated with
critical accounting assumptions and estimates; the effect of applying future accounting changes;
global capital market activity; the ability to attract and retain key executives; reliance on third
parties for business infrastructure components; technological changes; change in tax laws;
unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings; continued negative impact of the United States
litigation environment; unexpected changes in consumer spending and saving habits; war or political
instability and the possible impact of international conflicts and terrorism; acts of God, such as
earthquakes; the effects of disease or illness on local, national or international economies; the
effects of disruptions to public infrastructure, such as transportation, communications, power or
water supply; managements ability to anticipate and manage the risks associated with these
factors; The Toronto-Dominion Banks ability to execute its integration, growth and acquisition
strategies, including those of its subsidiaries, particularly in the U.S.; the ability to obtain
the approval of TD Banknorth stockholders, or any required governmental approvals, of the proposed
merger between TD Banknorth and a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank and the
ability to satisfy other conditions to such transaction on the proposed terms and schedule; and the
impact of the factors enumerated above on TD Banknorths financial results, businesses, financial
condition or liquidity. Additional factors that could cause TD Bank Financial Groups and TD
Banknorths results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can
be found in the 2006 Annual Report on Form 40-F for TD Bank Financial Group and the 2005 Annual
Report on Form 10-K of TD Banknorth filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available
at the Securities and Exchange Commissions Internet site
(http://www.sec.gov).
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WHERE TO FIND IT
In connection with the proposed merger between TD Banknorth and a
wholly-owned subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank, TD Banknorth filed a preliminary proxy statement with
the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 19, 2006. TD Banknorth will also file a
definitive proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with the
proposed merger. Stockholders of TD Banknorth are urged to read the definitive proxy statement
regarding the proposed merger when it becomes available, because it will contain important
information. Stockholders will be able to obtain a free copy of the definitive proxy statement as
well as other filings containing information about TD Bank Financial Group and TD Banknorth, when
available, without charge, at the Securities and Exchange Commissions Internet site
(http://www.sec.gov). In addition, copies of the definitive proxy statement can be obtained, when
available, without charge, by directing a request to TD Bank Financial Group, 66 Wellington Street
West, Toronto, ON M5K 1A2, Attention: Investor Relations, (416) 308-9030, or to TD Banknorth Inc.,
Two Portland Square, P.O. Box 9540, Portland, ME 04112-9540, Attention: Investor Relations, (207)
761-8517.
TD Bank Financial Group, TD Banknorth, their respective directors and executive officers and other
persons may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in respect of the proposed
transaction. Information regarding TD Bank Financial Groups directors and executive officers is
available in its Annual Report on Form 40-F for the year ended October 31, 2006, which was filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 11, 2006, and its notice of annual meeting
and proxy circular for its most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission on February 24, 2006. Information regarding TD Banknorths directors and
executive officers is available in TD Banknorths proxy statement for its most recent annual
meeting, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 30, 2006. Other
information regarding the participants in the proxy solicitation and a description of their direct
and indirect interests, by security holdings or otherwise, are contained in the preliminary proxy
statement and the Schedule 13E-3 transaction statement filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on December 19, 2006.
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Ed Clark
TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
PRESENTATION
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
Thank you very much, and Im delighted to be here. Youve seen many of those statements. So the
title of this graph is Why TD Bank? I guess if you want the simple answer, then you can nod off
for the rest of the morning is, because weve had a fabulous earnings performance and shareholder
performance on a continuous basis over the years and the outlook is by all the analysts is that
were going to continue to outperform in the next few years. So if you want the bottom line, but
Ill go through each of the points here.
I think the first point is that while we are a Canadian bank, situated in a Canadian economy, and I
think one of the things that we try to do when we go out and speak to people is to explain how
powerful the Canadian economy has been and how good its been for Canadian banks. Its really been
a fantastic story.
Secondly, weve carved out a business strategy thats very specific, which is that we can have
superior growth to our competition without extending out the risk curves. So we dont extend out
the credit risk curve and particularly in the context of the U.S., we are fully hedged in interest.
If we give an option away to the consumer, we buy the consumer in the capital markets and hedge out
all interest rate risks.
So the inverted yield curve doesnt bother us at all. In fact, if anything, its probably slightly
positive because its hard to hedge out absolute interest rates. Thirdly, we will take you through
the facts that show despite the fact there is an oligopoly in Canada of five large banks, there
is one player that continuously takes market share and profits and revenue from the other four, and
Ill demonstrate that to you.
And, finally, we think we are prudently entering the United States to give us optionality to grow
in the United States and see whether we can export some of our operating model to the United
States, and were pleased with the franchises we have. So, very simple terms, just to put us in
context, were currently the ninth-largest bank in terms of market cap headquartered in the United
States. You can see the tremendous growth in our value from 2002 to today. Only about $4 billion of
that in U.S. dollars represents share issuance. The rest is organic growth that weve been able to
achieve.
When you get to the EPS numbers, were not big buyer backers of our stock. We manage to produce
great EPS, earnings growth without having to use the technique of stock buybacks. Again, this will
just put us in context of the kind of relative size, and Ill come to it. You can see very, very
strong capital ratios and we have a very, very strong franchise, which Ill get into.
In terms of earnings, this gives you the basic breakdown. We have a very strong base in Canada in
retail business, including our wealth management business. Were an integrated retail entity. Right
now, we have about 12% earnings from our U.S. operations. That will grow to about 18% as we acquire
the rest of Banknorth and the TD Securities side has been steadily shrinking. So theres been quite
a transformation in the bank.
In 1999, 55% of our earnings came from TD Securities and that number will be about 18% in 2007.
What does this mean in terms of earnings per share? As Ive said, these are earnings per share
basically achieved without buying back shares, and weve been able to over the years, have superior
earnings per share growth relative to our Canadian peers and relative to the other large-cap banks
in the United States.
I think behind that number, all of the Canadian banks have done well, and I think that partly
reflects that Canada is a very, very strong economy. You can see the kind of fiscal position. We
solved our fiscal deficit problem in the 90s. Weve been running continuous current account
surpluses and still running a current account surplus despite the massive appreciation in he
Canadian dollar.
We keep inflation low, and weve had pretty solid growth going here. So Canada is, in fact, quite a
good economy in which to operate. Now, let me get into what I think is the heart of the issue, is
can we actually produce better growth at lower risk, and how do we actually do that. Well, its
really a combination of having a different business mix than most large banks do, so I think Ill
go through that. We have a premium earnings mix.
Secondly, within our wholesale bank, we have radically restructured our wholesale bank to take a
dramatic amount of the risk out of it. We focus in at the whole bank, again, a notion that probably
a little singles us out. We are maniacs about economic profit, so everything around the bank is
measured around economic profit. The leaders of the wholesale bank are rewarded in producing
economic profit, so we assign capital on a risk basis, and they get their bonuses if they in fact
generate profits for the shareholders.
And, as a result of that, we changed the wholesale bank quite dramatically and we have a very
strong balance sheet. So in terms of mix, as I say, we have about 81% retail earnings in our mix
and that number is gradually going up. It can only go up so fast because the wholesale now is only
at 19, and so small that you have to super-grow your retail in order to make big progress, but
every year that number goes up one or two points as a percentage of earnings.
If you look at the wholesale, you can see the dramatic change, the amount of capital that weve
been able to take out of the wholesale business without actually affecting its earnings. So by
focusing its activities on the high rate of return, low-risk areas, we are big buyers of credit
protection. We sell off our loans. We dont believe in holding large positions on the loan book. We
have a huge and powerful philosophy to get rid of tail risk.
We think tail risk is a heavily under compensated risk in the marketplace, and so whenever we find
tail risk, as an example, as I say, we buy credit protection rather than sell credit protection. We
buy reinsurance rather than sell reinsurance. And so, we philosophically go through the bank and
constantly look to eliminate tail risk. The result of all that is very good earnings at high rates
of return.
We also have a very strong balance sheet. Were currently above 12% in terms of our tier one ratio.
We be buying back Banknorth if the shareholders approve, targeted for the middle of March, and
well do that with cash. Weve tended to fund our U.S. expansion with cash, and Ill explain why
were able to do that. When we do that, our tier one ratio will come down to about 10%, so well
come down to the Canadian average, which is still significantly above the U.S. averages.
Why are we able to generate the kind of cash to expand? Its because we have very high rates of
return for every dollar of risk we take. If you think of banks, theyre fundamentally machines to
generate regulatory capital, is the way we look at it. And if youre better at generating
regulatory capital for every dollar of risk you take, then, in fact, you become a cash machine and
you have greater capital capacity to continue to expand.
This graph underestimates our difference because, in this graph, were only putting 57% of Bank
norths earnings, but we put 100% of the risk-rated assets. So we have been treating Banknorth like
we own all of the downside and weve only got 57% of the upside. So when we roll Banknorth in, we
wont change the denominator, but we will change the numerator, and this number will go up in the
GAAP and our performance relative to everyone else in the industry will be even wider than it is
today.
So, the next section really goes through how do we there are five major banks in Canada, how do
we, as one of those five, outperform the other four on a continuous basis. And while this may look
like a simple growth model that everyone would say they do, we actually do what we say were going
to do.
So the first item is that you have to just constantly reinvest. Nobody in my organization can keep
their job by robbing the future to get present earnings. In 2005, we built the same number of
branches as the other four banks combined. In 2006, we built 31 new branches. The other four banks
built 34 new branches. So you see the order of magnitude at which thats just an example.
We went through in every area, we invest more in these systems, we do things, both systems to
reduce costs but also systems to eventually grow revenue. So that is a core part of our business
philosophy is that you have to today my management team is focused on 2008 and 2009, because
when youre running a large retail, thats the kind of lead times you need.
Secondly is that because of the way we are put together, the merger between Canada Trust and TD
Bank, there are certain products that we dont hold our natural market share, and rather than being
weaknesses, which is how they are, when, in fact, in our view, theyre opportunities and they have
allowed us to super-grow those areas, because we have the core banking relationship with the
customer. We just dont have those products. And weve been able to then take dramatic market share
in those products as we leverage that relationship.
And third, we are operators. The philosophy inside the organization is that we are fundamentally
operators and people are rewarded for operational success. We believe very strongly philosophically
that financial services is not a business of strategic insights. Its the business of actually
executing whats pretty obvious for people.
Just again to situate us, in terms of the core basic retail business, were either number one or
number one or number two in most products. We clearly own the customer service spot in Canada by
any survey. We always win the basic survey that we produce better service. Its part of our brands
history. Everybody in the bank, from me on down, is paid on customer satisfaction and we measure
customer satisfaction every single night, 2,000 telephone calls go out to customers. We accumulate
the data and we rate everybody constantly on whether or not were improving customer satisfaction.
So, why dont I take you through what I think then is the core issue. So if you look at this graph,
you can see that on a revenue basis, the Canadian banks report revenue on personal commercial
insurance and wealth management has one segment. We actually break it out, but a number of the
Canadian banks dont. But it does mean that we have consistent accounting information on all the
banks. And what you can see is a pretty dramatic year-in, year-out, no matter whether the revenues
are growing quickly or growing slowly, they grow faster, we grow our revenue faster than the
Canadian average.
And that really reflects two core things. First, because we have a better brand, because we build
more branches and we find them in better locations, and because we provide better service, we grow
our customer base faster so our core checking account business grows faster than our competition.
We lose fewer customers than our competition and we cross-sell better to our competition.
So the basic banking business, as you can see, you just take small amounts of market share every
year, but in an oligopoly, it is small amounts of market share. But then we supplement this, as I
said earlier, because we have these areas that are underpenetrated from our point of view where we
dont hold our natural market share. We have very simple cross-selling techniques that allow us to
pick up and then have super growth in those areas.
This graph just illustrates the other feature in our business strategy is that we always grow our
expenses inside our revenue, and so we try to go for a 3% gap between the two. And so, whether or
not your revenue is growing at two and then you have to have minus one or your revenue is growing
at 11, you can have eight. And eight looks like a big number and it is a big number. But it
reflects our philosophy that
when youre able, by that previous graph, to outgrow significantly your competition in revenue,
rather than sitting on that, you should plow that back into further advantage, because thats what
allows you year in and year out to continuously do that.
So whenever we get in the revenue advantage, then we grow the distribution system or invest in
systems that will allow us to take costs out and continue to have that superior performance. The
following illustrates some examples of products that were leveraging. You can see in the credit
card area, because when we did the merger, we had to sell off the Canada Trust credit card
portfolio, we ended up with a very small market share in credit cards.
The good news is that the legal restriction on us of going after that customer base has now been
removed, and so weve been aggressively going back to those customers who used to hold our cards
and cross-selling them cards again. Similarly, Canada Trust was not a major player in the small
business, even though TD Canada Trust has above-average market share on the personal side of people
who operate small businesses, so, again, we run a strategy of identifying those people and going
back and in general people prefer to do their small business banking in where they do their
personal banking.
And, similarly, there was an underdevelopment of wealth management in our franchise and we set out
to, in fact, narrow that gap and super-grow that area. So you can see what happens when you do
that. Weve taken continuous market share in our credit cards. Weve taken market share in our
small business, and weve been investing heavily in building out our wealth management area. Our
wealth management area has basically been growing its earnings at 30% a year on a continuous basis,
despite the fact that were putting heavy dollars into investing out our advisory side.
As I indicated to you, we run a very disciplined system of making sure that our expenses grow
inside our revenue. You can see that on our TD Canada Trust on the left-hand side is just the
personal and commercial, and you can see a continuous drop. When you grow one number inside the
other, then youre going to have your efficiency ratio improve every year. And then on the other
side, which is the only place where we have comparable data with the other banks, you can see that
we run at a significant cost advantage relative to the other Canadian banks.
Now, I always say the only number that matters to you is what does all this mean in terms of
profit? And so you can see just on every year we grow our profits faster than our competition, and
we do that year in and year out, depending on the level. These are pretty extraordinary rates of
growth of profit. We have said to the market that with the U.S. slowing down and the ultimate
impact in Canada, we see these numbers coming down, but we see no reason why we will not be at
10%-plus in earnings growth this year.
And were confident that we will continue to outgrow the competition in this area. Because we, as
Ive indicated earlier, we dont take any interest rate risk, so it really doesnt matter where
interest rates move, theyre not a dominant factor in predicting this. Its more whats happening
in the underlying economy that sets the absolute level of growth.
Were very careful on our PCLs. Were very credit conscious, and so we dont see significant risk
to our earnings in the near term on the credit front. There will be an increase theres
obviously an increase in our PCLs as our volumes grow, so weve significantly grown our credit
volumes on our credit card business and our PCLs will grow in line with that volume, but thats the
only fundamental thats going on there.
Now, finally, we have entered into the United States, and weve entered into the United States in
two forms, TD Banknorth, Northeastern Bank in the United States has about 600 branches, $27 billion
in deposits. And then TD Ameritrade, we owned 100% of Waterhouse. And we [blended] that into
Ameritrade, and we own economically, 45% of TD Ameritrade. We like our positions. We think we have
solid franchises in both cases, and they believe from our point of view they give us optionality in
the United States.
The more controversial has been TD Banknorth, because banking in the U.S. hasnt been a
particularly great business over the past year or so, and I think faces tough prospects over the
next couple of years. So we see a market in which the deposit base isnt growing particularly
rapidly, and we do see the potential for deteriorating credit.
On the other hand, we also see tremendous opportunity in the U.S. We find that in many of the small
banks in the United States, but indeed, even medium-sized banks are relatively unsophisticated on a
world scale. And so, weve been operating in a world of five banks, where every point of market
share you have to take, you have to have pretty sophisticated retail expertise to do it. Many of
these small banks, in a sense, are relatively unsophisticated.
So we are quite pleased with where were located in the United States. We think we have a good
operational management. And, we think that the things we need to do to improve the performance of
Banknorth are all things that are things that we know how to do. Theyre the techniques that weve
used in Canada to produce the performance that you saw earlier, relative to our competitors in
Canada are all techniques that we think are available to improve the performance of Banknorth.
What we have said is that were going to have a pause in terms of acquisitions for 2007 while we
prove out that these techniques actually do work when you export them, and that we do improve the
performance of Banknorth. And then well look to do small acquisitions that give us the positions
that we want in the marketplace and then build out from those acquisitions.
In terms of Ameritrade, that was a very successful transaction. Right when I announced it, I said
it was rare in life that you get to announce a transaction that is fantastic from a strategic point
of view but overwhelming from a financial point of view, and this one was both. And so we were able
to put Waterhouse into Ameritrade for more than our proportionate earnings that we were
contributing, and at the same time, were now following that on with cost synergies.
These are platforms that have tremendous capacity to when you put two platforms together, to
take out costs. And so, were still in the early days of rolling through those synergies. The main
bump will come in the fourth quarter of this year, 2007, where the costs come out when we do the
actual conversion and Ameritrade has a great track record of actually having done a number of
these, of actually getting the costs out. And so, mathematically there is a tremendous boost to our
earnings occurring as we did this transaction and as we roll out the cost synergies.
At the same time, I think we have a terrific platform to grow in the United States. And the basic
business that were making with TD Ameritrade is that we can take a platform that was the number
one platform in the active trader, that had the best technology and the best margins in the
industry, and use it, giving the Waterhouse base to grow the long-term investor, either in the RIA
space, where ourselves, Schwab and Fidelity are the three major backrooms for the RIA group. Or the
direct to the consumer space, where were going for the consumer that no longer can be served by
the full service brokers and has a need to the mass affluent, where in fact theres a need for
package and [advice] products.
So, in short, why would you look at the TD Bank? Well, it is a leading North American player, in
the top ten, situated in Canada. As I indicated, Canada is not a bad place. If you take a look at
the history of Canadian banks as an investor, its hard to find an investment around the world
thats been better than investing in Canadian banks over the last 20 years, and when you look at
our prospects, they remain very positive.
We are running a very unique strategy that says we can get growth without going out the risk curve,
credit or interest rate risk. Thirdly, weve proven that, in fact, we can take market share on a
continuous basis despite that were in a highly competitive market and we believe were well
positioned in the U.S. to run a prudent strategy of growing in the U.S. on the basis of two bases,
Banknorth and TD Ameritrade.
And Ill pause there.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
Unidentified Audience Member
I was left with the impression that in terms of building out in the U.S., take a pause in 2007 and
then build from smaller acquisitions and build them out organically. Im trying to get a sense, I
guess I have two questions. Is Banknorth small, medium or large in terms of an acquisition size,
and can you comment on your ownership position in terms of whether you want a minority position or
a majority or 100% ownership when you do these things?
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
Right, so just to deal with the latter point, so we have a proposal in and I think theres a
shareholder vote probably scheduled in the middle of March where we would acquire the rest of
Banknorth and so we would own 100% of it. And so until they vote you dont know which way it would
go, but I would say the market is leaning from the way you look at the numbers like it will be a
successful vote.
So we would own 100% of it. I think when we think of small acquisitions, we think of $2 billion or
$3 billion and below, not above that. I think the fundamental I guess, I think the business that
were making is, yes, the United States is a different banking environment than Canada, no doubt
about it. I owned a thrift in the United States when I ran Canada Trust, so Ive been there, done
that, a highly successful investment.
And so you have to understand whats different about the United States, but in terms of fundamental
management techniques, do your sales performance systems work? If you understand the economic
profit of every product, does that work? Can you develop products that allow you to keep the
customers so that if, in todays environment, if you cant keep the customer in your savings
account, can you find a product where you dont lose the customer, even if you might clean your
margins out?
Can you develop new branches? Were obviously big players in developing new branches. I think all
of those techniques were developing a credit card. We already have a credit card platform, so
its relatively small costs for us to introduce a credit card into the Banknorth environment. So
each of those things, we think, the managerial techniques that work in Canada work in the United
States. And when we look at the U.S. landscape, we can find players that are highly successful in
doing that.
So I think our basic model is, but until you see or do so far, its theory, not practice. And so
thats why you want to sit there and say, okay, lets work our way through, make sure that its
working. And then, continue to make acquisitions, around which we would probably make the
acquisitions and then build out new branches around that, as weve done in Canada.
Unidentified Audience Member
And just to follow-up, so your preference is 100% ownership when you ?
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
I think our preference right now, originally we were happy with the idea of sharing the risk
with a minority shareholder. It wasnt a bad idea from our point of view, and because weve been
able to do the whole acquisition of Banknorth, even when we own 100% of it, well have only issued
44 million shares in total, or a couple billion dollars in total to have acquired all of Banknorth.
So, because we have this cash generation capacity and we dont need to buy back shares in order to
outperform our competition in EPS growth, because we have superior organic, in a sense we have cash
that allows us to make these acquisitions. So, we were happy to have the majority model with a
minority.
I think in terms of it obviously does make it a little bit easier if youre exporting operating
management techniques to do it with 100% owned context, so for the moment I think thats where we
would stay.
Unidentified Audience Member
I have a question. Could you speak to the momentum of smaller banks in Canada and specialty finance
firms, maybe non-bank finance firms and how that might impact your market share?
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
I think that the question is what about the small entrants into the Canadian marketplace? I guess
as long as Ive been in the business, and unfortunately Im now counting that in decades, rather
than in years, theres always been this people look at the Canadian banks and say this is not
possible, to sustain this performance. And that either the American giants will come, so Citicorp
has come up, MBNA has come up, Capital One has come up.
But theyll come up, and finally show you how a real bank works, and that theyll clean the
Canadian banks clocks. And then they lose a couple hundred million dollars and then retreat across
the border. And so in all that we have the same thing, we have a number of small entrants that keep
on nipping away at our heels, and I think thats very good for the consumer.
I think the way I look at it is there are a set of products, mortgages, high-end savings, where
there should be no economic profit in those products, and so every time you can see and weve
obviously watched this quite closely. As soon as you get economic profits in mortgages, you know
youre going to go into a pricing war. And so eventually it happens and then they take the economic
profit out and sometimes theres negative economic profit for a while and then the economic profit
is restored.
The reality is that the franchises arent making their money on those essentially commodity
products. Theyre making their money on their core franchise. And the power of the core franchise
is that we have a trust relationship with our customer base that allows us to cross sell.
So if you take the mutual fund area, just four or five years ago, you would have said the mutual
fund area was going to be an area dominated by independents. Today, ourselves and the Royal Bank
are the one, two in terms of net long-term sales for four years in a row, and the Royal Bank is now
the second-largest mutual fund company in Canada, and TD is the fourth largest. And so you can see
where that industry will eventually go, the Canadian banks will dominate the mutual fund
businesses.
I think the same will happen notwithstanding the jurisdictional restrictions in insurance. Were
the number three property and casualty insurer in personal terms in Canada, and we take market
share every single year from the industry, because we actually run. Our property and casualty
insurance has an efficiency ratio in costs of 18%. Go around the world and say how many property
and casualty insurers are running at an 18%, and that includes capital taxes of three or four
percentage points.
And so I think what you find is that these peripheral players will come, theyll create. Theyll
take away the economic profit in the products that were easily attackable, but meanwhile the
franchise holds in and you keep getting these same numbers year in and year out.
Unidentified Speaker
Any questions? I have a couple more. Any interest in building a presence outside the U.S., sort of
like CIBC did with First Caribbean, or what we heard that Scotia was thinking about doing in Puerto
Rico.
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
The question is are we interested in growing outside? Are we going to be a North American bank or
go outside? I think the reality is for the moment the answer is no. I mean, obviously, our
wholesale operations, we have a significant wholesale operations in the UK and Australia, and
Japan, and Hong Kong. But those are there because you have to be there to serve your customers.
But I think we believe in being highly focused and pouring your energy into one area, not spreading
yourself too thin. And clearly, we think our competitive advantage right now is in North America.
We think over time there are synergies between TD Ameritrade and our TD Banking operations.
Obviously, right now, we are getting a lift, because of the kind of marketing dollars that go into
TD Ameritrade that spill over and give us presence in our markets on the banking side.
And so I think, in the retail basis its better generally to stay focused and highly concentrated
and leverage yourself up, and so I think well do that.
Unidentified Speaker
Ill keep asking if no one else asks, so with your expense ratio, which on one chart you had down
to 54.8%, I think it was, because of this 3% gap that you talked about between revenue and
expenses. So, mathematically that could keep coming down for a long time, but is there a level
where we should expect that to level out and cant do the eight and five in 07 [and four] or
whatever? How do you think about that?
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
I believe so. My troops tell me no. Watch us, so well be able to keep on doing this. But I do
think that its been a lot easier to do the 3% gap with 11% revenue growth than I was actually
running the retail bank when it had 2% an I had to do minus one. And could you do 2% and minus one
for very many years? I think the answer is no.
It just was a lot easier when you have 8%, because just in terms of the amount of investment that
you can put in to lower costs is much, much higher. So if the whole game in terms of getting that
efficiency ratio is to figure out the reengineering that you have to do in 2007 to take costs out
in 2008 and 2009, and have the dollars that you can spend doing those things.
So I think, I believe that the revenue base cant keep on growing. Were growing about twice the
GNP, and so I would say mathematically well be the GNP in Canada if this keeps up, and so thats
not possible. And so, I think you have to believe that gap will start to narrow as we come down.
But I think theres still what is staggering is the amount of economies that we find every year
that processes that we still can do better. And so do I think we can get below 50%? I think we
can get below 50%, and the ROEs, operational ROEs of these businesses are pretty phenomenal
operational ROEs.
If you just look at that 246 number, return on risk-weighted assets and raise it up for the fact
that we dont have enough in the numerator and then multiply that by a kind of leverage ratio,
thats where the TD Bank as a whole, you can see the kind of return were getting on regulatory
capital is a spectacular number. And so even holding, if you didnt move your efficiency ratios,
thats pretty good, but the fact is, well get the ratios, keep on going down for a while, yes.
Unidentified Speaker
I think there was a question in the back.
Unidentified Audience Member
I think you said on the assumption that the Banknorth shareholders approve the current offer out
there, that they will represent about 18% of total bank profits. Do you have a number in mind about
where you would like to see the U.S. share to be ultimately? And, connected to that is, how big do
you think you have to be to get decent economies of scale in the U.S. market? Youve obviously got
them in the Canadian market.
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
I think the answer is that we dont have a number. Im actually philosophically opposed to having
numbers. I find when people put those kind of share goals out, they turn their brains off and they
start making bad decisions, because they say, well, Ive got to do that in order to get to that
number, as opposed to Im making money from the shareholders, and therefore . And so in a sense,
we originally set out a number that we wanted to be 80% retail and 20% wholesale.
And that was a bit driven by saying we wanted to signal to the market broadly the kind of mix we
thought was where we wanted. And we wanted to make sure that they very high fees that were
inherited in the retail space werent hurt by the volatility that I think is inherent in the
wholesale space today. Now people believe that theres no volatility left in the wholesale market
and well have perfect credit world forever, but I still am an old schooler that believes
eventually it will.
But, generally, Im opposed to those targets. So weve not set a target. What we have said is that
what we do want to do is to grow Banknorth in the markets in which it competes and own those
markets, and by that we would, say, be in a top-five position in those markets. As to the right
size, originally, when we went in we said the right size from our point of view would be to get it
up to about $1 billion a year in income. We thought at $1 billion a year in income, given our scale
and what we can contribute, that we wouldnt worry about its scale.
I dont think weve particularly changed our view on that. I do think that we do find that in a
sense on the basic technologies that theyre quite transferable at this size, and so were really
not seeing anything in the U.S. that says we cant be competitive. But were obviously aware of the
amount of consolidation thats going on in the U.S. But its not obvious to us that the players
that are bigger are doing better.
And so, we take a look at what we do and what they do, we say, well, if we can get Banknorth and it
just outgrows its competition, then thats not a bad space to be and you dont get too obsessed
with size. So I dont think were obsessed with getting to the billion-dollar number we said we
wanted to do over a five-year period, so I think thats probably notionally the right thing. But,
as I said, Im rather opposed to targets, because I think they turn peoples brains off when you
put them in.
Unidentified Audience Member
You mentioned that your tier one capital ratio is significantly higher than U.S. peers. Is this
primarily [determined] by regulatory constraints, or is it just being conservative? And, second,
could you talk a little bit more about your dividend policies.
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
Sorry, what was that last question?
Unidentified Audience Member
Your dividend policies?
Unidentified Audience Member
Dividend?
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
Policy, yes. Well, Ill start with that and then go to the tier one ratio. Were a little
controversial in Canada because I have a quite strong view on this. We [pay out] 40% of our
earnings. I think theres some question in the marketplace as to why, given our capital generation
capacity, we dont pay out more. My attitude on that is that I can have faster-growing dividends
than my competitors because I grow my earnings faster than my competitors.
And what you really are looking for when people want that dividend up, doing one time ups in the
dividend dont get you anything. I mean, its like having a nice meal, but youre hungry the next
day. What you really want is, can someone show you that they can sustainably grow their dividend
faster than anyone else.
I do think that it doesnt mean that I would never raise our payout ratio, but you raise your
payout ratio, frankly, when your earnings slow down, not when your earnings are growing. And weve
been growing our earnings at 20% for a longer period of time. Id say today the analysts would say
were going to grow our earnings at 13% for the next couple of years.
Well, 13% is not in my lifetime. You can grow your earnings at 13% a year every year, you dont
have a problem. I have to believe Im old-school enough to believe the economy will slow down,
the cycle will come back, there will be PCLs, and so always growing at 13% is hard to do. Thats
when you want to move the dividend ratio up, when in fact you [cant] have very high growth in
dividends, not when you already are having high growth in dividends.
In terms of our tier one ratio, we have kept a lot of capital available. We wanted to keep capital
available in order that we could do the Banknorth privatization. And I think we want to keep our
firepower available so that if we do see small acquisitions that fit, well have that capability.
If it turns out, though, that we cant redeploy the capital from our point of view economically,
productively, were not opposed to buying back shares. So excess capital, we solve that problem
through share buybacks, not through dividend policies. Dividend policy is its 40% and grow your
dividends faster than the other guy by growing the earnings faster than the other guy.
Unidentified Speaker
Time for one last question? Anybody?
Unidentified Speaker
Yes, okay. Thank you.
Ed Clark - Toronto Dominion Bank President and CEO
Thank you.