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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
 

 
FORM 6-K
 
Report of Foreign Private Issuer
Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
 
For the month of August, 2004

Commission File Number 001-14491
 

 

TELE CELULAR SUL PARTICIPAÇÕES S.A.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
 

TELE CELLULAR SUL HOLDING COMPANY
(Translation of Registrant's name into English)
 

Rua Comendador Araújo, 299 - 3º Andar
80420-000 Curitiba. PR, Brazil
(Address of principal executive office)
 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover Form 20-F or Form 40-F. 

Form 20-F ___X___ Form 40-F _______

 Indicate by check mark whether the registrant by furnishing the information contained in this Form is also thereby furnishing the information to the Commission pursuant to Rule 12g3-2(b) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.  

Yes _______ No ___X____


Filer: Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A.
Proposed merger with Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A.
Registration No. 333-116330

Legend

In connection with this proposed transaction, Tele Celular Participações S.A. (TSU) has filed relevant materials with the SEC, including TSU's registration statement containing a preliminary prospectus, which was filed on June 9, 2004. The definitive prospectus will be sent to holders of Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A.'s (TND) preferred shares and ADRs when it becomes available. INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS ARE URGED TO READ THE PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS ON FILE WITH THE SEC, THE DEFINITIVE PROSPECTUS WHEN IT BECOMES AVAILABLE, AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS FILED BY TSU OR TND, BECAUSE THEY CONTAIN, OR WILL CONTAIN, IMPORTANT INFORMATION. Investors and security holders may obtain a free copy of the preliminary prospectus and the definitive prospectus (when it becomes available) and other documents filed by TSU and TND with the SEC for free at the SEC's web site at www.sec.gov. The preliminary prospectus and the definitive prospectus (when it becomes available), and the other documents filed by TSU, may also be obtained free from TND by calling +55 81 3302-2594.



Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A.
Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A.

August 2004




Valuation Report

Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A.
Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A.

FREE TRANSLATION

Corporate Finance, May 20, 2004

FREE TRANSLATION

VALUATION REPORT: Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A. and Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A.


IMPORTANT

Banco ABN AMRO Real S.A. ("BAAR") has been retained by Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A. ("TSU") and Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A. ("TND” and together with TSU, the "Companies”), to render an independent financial-economic valuation (the “Valuation “ or the “Valuations”) of TSU and TND in connection with the incorporation of TND by TSU, which shall culminate in the dissolution of TND, pursuant to articles 223 and following of the Brazilian Corporate Law (Law no. 6404/76, as amended) (the ”Transaction"). The purpose of the Valuations is to calculate the financial-economic equity value of TSU and TND. The Valuations were prepared by BAAR for exclusive use of the Boards of Directors of TSU and TND in assessing the Transaction and shall not be used by any third parties or for purposes other than the Transaction. BAAR has not made and will not make any recommendation, and does not express any opinion, explicitly or implicitly, on the definition of the exchange ratio of the shares issued by TND for new shares issued by TSU within the Transaction, which will be determined by means of negotiations between TSU and TND.

REFERENCE DATE, METHODOLOGY EMPLOYED IN THE APPRAISAL AND LIABILITY

The Valuations were based upon the quarterly financial statements of each of the Companies for the first quarter of 2004 (the "Financial Statements"), adjusted as to reflect changes in the net debt of TND resulting from the cash payment made on April 8, 2004 by TIM Nordeste Telecomunicações S.A. in connection with the exercise of withdrawal rights by minority shareholders of TelecearáCelular S.A., Telepisa Celular S.A., Telern Celular S.A., Telpa Celular S.A. and Telasa Celular S.A. The Financial Statements were reviewed by Ernst & Young Auditores Independentes S.S. ("Ernst & Young"). The reference date for the Valuations is March 31, 2004.

In our Valuations, for purposes of calculating the equity value of each of the Companies we have also considered cash and cash equivalent balances, financial investments, loans and financings, hedges and contingency provisions as of March 31, 2004, which reflect the best understanding of Ernst & Young, communicated in their letters of May 19, 2004, addressed to the Companies and provided to us by the latter.

Given the availability of 10-year management business plans for the Companies and their respective subsidiaries, which were prepared by and approved by their respective managements, and our opportunity to review such plans with the management of the Companies, and given the limitations of other comparable transactions and precedents, BAAR selected the discounted cash flow methodology for rendering the Valuations. The Companies were valued on a stand-alone basis and, therefore, the results do not include operational, tax or any other losses or gains, nor any synergies, which may result from the Transaction, nor costs arising out of or relating to the Transaction.

We were advised by the management of the Companies that the quarterly Financial Statements of each of the Companies for the first quarter of 2004 were prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in Brazil, and were subject to a review by Ernst & Young, in accordance with the rules and requirements of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). BAAR did not perform any independent investigation of the Financial Statements and, therefore, does not assume any responsibility for their content, accuracy, veracity, integrity, consistency, sufficiency or precision.

In order to render the Valuations, BAAR relied on the premises, estimates and projections prepared and approved by the management of the Companies, and used only information furnished by the Companies, as well as public information, including quarterly financial statements for the first quarter of 2004 and historic financial statements for the fiscal years ending December 31, 2001, 2002 and 2003, which were reviewed and/or audited by Ernst & Young (the “Information”).

In addition, BAAR used financial projections and estimates prepared and approved by the Companies’ management.

As advised by the management of the Companies, we adopted the assumption that the financial projections furnished to us reflect the best estimates at the time hey were made available to us, as well as the best judgement of the management of TSU and TND as to the expected future financial performances of the Companies.

BAAR assumed, all Information provided by the Companies to be accurate and complete, and performed no independent investigation and, therefore, assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information, including, without limitation, the projections of TSU and TND or the assumptions and estimates on which such projections were based. BAAR did not undertake (i) any appraisal of the assets and liabilities (whether contingent or not) of the Companies; (ii) any review or audit of the historical financial statements or of the Financial Statements of the Companies; (iii) any technical audit of the operations of the Companies; or (iv) any physical inspection of the property or assets of the Companies.

BAAR does not and will not, expressly or implicitly, make any representation or statement regarding the Information (including projections or forecasts of the Companies or assumptions and estimates on which such projections and forecasts were based) used in preparing the Valuations, nor assumes any responsibility or obligation to indemnify any party for the content, accuracy, veracity, completeness, consistency, sufficiency and precision of such Information, each of which is the sole and exclusive responsibility of the Companies.

There is no way to ensure that the estimates and projections used for purpose of the Valuations, especially those which depend on the occurrence of future and uncertain events beyond the control of the Companies, will actually be achieved. The actual future results of the Companies may differ significantly from the forecast results utilised in connection with the Valuations. Therefore, BAAR does not assume any responsibility should the future results be substantially different from those used in connection with the Valuations.

For the purposes of the Valuations BAAR assumed a stable macro-economic scenario in Brazil.

The Valuations do not constitute a judgement, opinion or recommendation to the management of the Companies, the Companies or their shareholders as to the convenience and opportunity, or to the strategic decision of the Companies, to implement the Transaction. The Valuations and this letter do not constitute any recommendation to the shareholders of the Companies as to how they should vote their shares in connection with the Transaction, and are not intended to support any investment decision.

BARR has rendered, directly or through its related companies, certain financial and investment banking services to the Companies and their controlling shareholders, subsidiaries and affiliates, for which it received compensation, and it shall continue to render such services and may, at any time, render additional services. BAAR is and may become at any time, directly or through its related companies, a creditor of the Companies and their controlling shareholders, subsidiaries and affiliates in certain financial transactions. BAAR also acts as the transfer agent and registrar of the shares of TSU and TND, and therefore, shall perform certain administrative functions in connection with the Transaction.

During its regular course of business, BAAR may trade or hold, directly or through its related companies, on its behalf or on behalf of third parties, securities of the Companies and their controlling shareholders, subsidiaries and affiliates, and, as a consequence thereof, may hold, at any time, long or short positions in these securities. In addition, the research departments as well as other divisions within BAAR including its related companies, may use in their analyses, reports and publications, estimates, projections and methodologies other than those used in the Valuations, and therefore, such analyses, reports and publications may contain results that differ from those described in the Valuations.

BAAR shall receive compensation for rendering the services related to the Valuations, regardless of the completion of the proposed Transaction. TSU and TND have agreed to indemnify BAAR and its related companies for certain liabilities which may arise from the services related to the Valuation, and have agreed to reimburse BAAR for fees of our legal advisors retained in connection with the preparation of the Valuations.

The Valuations do not take into consideration any value which may be created by the consummation of the Transaction, or the costs resulting from, or incurred in connection with, the Transaction.

BAAR does not express any view as to the distribution of economic value among the various types and/or classes of shares of the Companies.

The Valuations constitute proprietary information of BAAR and shall not be disclosed or referenced to third parties, nor distributed, reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of BAAR.

BAAR is not bound to update, review or correct any information contained in the Valuations or to furnish any additional information regarding the Valuations at any time.

The rendering of economic and financial valuations is a complex process that involves subjective judgements and is not suitable for partial analyses or summarised descriptions. BAAR did not place special emphasis on any specific factors considered in the Valuations, but rather performed a qualitative assessment of the importance and relevance of all factors considered therein. In this context, the Valuations should be considered as a whole and the review of selected portions, summaries or specific aspects of the Valuations, without acknowledging and analysing the Valuations as a whole, may result in a misleading and incomplete understanding of the analyses and their conclusions.

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

Financial Advisor Information 11 
 
Valuation Methodology 14 
 
Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A. (TSU) 26 
 
  3.a The Company - Overview 27 
 
  3.b Market Assumptions 34 
 
  3.c Operating and Financial Assumptions – TIM Sul 36 
 
  3.d Valuation Results 44 
 
Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A. (TND) 47 
 
  4.a The Company - Overview 48 
 
  4.b Market Assumptions 55 
 
  4.c Operating and Financial Assumptions – TIM Nordeste 57 
 
  4.d Valuation Results 65 
 
Implied Exchange Ratio 68 
 
Glossary 70 

1 Financial Advisor Information

The Corporate Finance Area of Banco ABN AMRO Real S.A.

Representations by Banco ABN AMRO Real S.A.

2 Valuation Methodology

Macro-Economic Assumptions


Main Macro-Economic Assumptions 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Inflation (IPCA) 6.0% 5.1% 8.0% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%
Exchange Rate (R$/US$) - Year-End 3.05  3.25  3.75  4.00  4.10  4.40  4.60  4.90  5.10  5.50 
Exchange Rate (R$/US$) - Average 2.94  3.10  3.63  3.88  4.05  4.25  4.50  4.75  5.00  5.30 

Selic - Year-End 13.5% 12.0% 14.0% 11.5% 10.5% 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

Real GDP Growth 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5%

Discounted Cash Flow Methodology (DCF)

COMPOSITION OF CASH FLOW

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHODOLOGY (DCF)

WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC)

 
 



D : Value of Company’s Total Indebtedness

E : Shareholder’s Equity

Re : Cost of Equity

Rd : Cost of Debt

Cost of Equity

Risk-Free Rate of Return

Political Risk in Brazil

PREMIUM FOR POLITICAL RISK IN BRAZIL

Beta

Beta = Unlevered Beta * [1 + (1 - IT rate) * Debt/Equity]

Market Risk Premium

Cost of Debt / Capital Structure

COST OF DEBT (Cost of Third-Party Capital)

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Terminal Value / Perpetuity Growth Rate

Weighted Average Cost of Capital - WACC

WACC

Weighted Average Cost of Capital


Cost of Equity (US$)  
 
U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond Yield (T-Bond) (1) 4.99%
Market Risk Premium 5.00%
 
Beta
 
Unlevered sector Beta 0.81 
Tax Rate 34.0%
Levered Beta 1.10 
 
Cost of Equity 10.5%
Country Risk Premium (2) 9.12%
Adjusted Cost of Equity 19.6%



Cost of Debt (US$)  
 
Cost of Debt Before Taxes 11.0%
After-Tax Cost of Debt 7.3%
 
Capital Structure (3)
 
% Equity 65.0%
% Debt 35.0%



Weighted Average Cost of Capital (R$)
 
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (nominal US$) 15.3%
 
Differential Long-term Inflation (Brazil vs U.S.) 1.6%
 
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (nominal R$) 17.1%

Notes:
(1) (2) Average over the last 6 years.
(3) Target capital structure.

3 Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A. (TSU)

3.a The Company - Overview

Company’s History

Applicable Regulations

Controlling Shareholders

Market Positioning

Competitive Scenario

3.b Market Assumptions

Demographic and Market Data – TIM Sul

The assumptions reflect an expectation of continuous growth in penetration rate in the region, reaching 55% at the end of the forecast period

This growth should be driven by a period of sustainable economic development in the region, associated with an increase in competition from other operators

Projections reflect the entrance of Brasil Telecom, whose market share is expected to remain modest throughout the forecast period

Population and Penetration (year-end)

Note: Population expressed in thousands, based on projections by IBGE

Total Mobile Market (year-end)

Note: Thousands of subscribers

3.c Operating and Financial Assumptions – TIM Sul

Revenues

The projected growth in the subscriber base reflects continued expansion in the pre-paid customer base

Subscriber Base (year-end)

Note: Thousands of subscribers

The expansion of the pre-paid customer base, and the migration of long-distance services to other operators, should limit ARPU growth

Average Revenue per User - ARPU

Note:

In R$, in nominal terms
ARPU defined as the total net service revenue, divided by the average number of users during the reference year, expressed in monthly nominal R$

The participation of handset revenues in total revenues drops during the forecast period

Revenues Breakdown

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

Operating Costs

The assumptions contemplate an increase in operating costs at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% between 2004 and 2013

The operating costs also include those associated with the renewal of the GSM radio frequency license beginning in 2008

Operating Costs

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

EBITDA

Economies of scale should facilitate an increase in EBITDA margins, from 35% in 2004 to 48% in 2013

EBITDA

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

Capex

The higher amounts in the first years capex of forecast period reflect TSU’s management assumptions regarding the migration from the TDMA to the GSM system

Capex Forecast

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

Income Statement

The projections in the table to the right refer to TIM Sul S.A., mobile operator in the Southern region

INCOME STATEMENT – PROJECTIONS - TIM SUL S.A.


Years ending on December 31 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013 

Income Statement Projection (R$ million)

Net Revenue 1,318  1 ,481 1,659  1,779  1,889  2,006  2,118  2,223  2,317  2,398 
 
Operating Expenses (859) (939) (1018) (1056) (1079) (1117) (1151) (1178) (1215) (1245)
 
EBITDA 459  542  641  723  810  888  968  1,045  1,102  1,152 
Margin (%) 34.8% 36.6% 38.6% 40.7% 42.9% 44.3% 45.7% 47.0% 47.6% 48.1%
 
Earnings before IT and SC 229  260  420  615  731  800  866  967  1077  1173 
 
Net Earnings 175  198  320  468  514  528  572  638  711  774 

Note:

R$ million, in nominal terms
Net earnings consider deferred taxes and tax loss carry-forward as applicable

Cash Flow

The projections in the table to the right refer to TIM Sul S.A., mobile operator in the Southern region

CASH FLOW – PROJECTIONS - TIM SUL S.A.


Years ending on December 31 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013 

Free Cash Flow Projection (R$ million)

Earnings before Interest and Taxes 192  232  374  534  631  688  741  820  901  963 
(-) I.T. and S.C. tax (65) (79) (127) (182) (215) (234) (252) (279) (306) (327)
(+) Depreciation and Amortization 267  310  267  189  179  201  226  225  201  189 
(-) Investments (392) (326) (243) (181) (176) (174) (183) (191) (198) (203)
(-) Changes in Working Capital (73) (20) 37  50  10  (2) 11  21  26  23 

Free Cash Flow of the Company (71) 117  308  411  429  479  544  596  624  644 

Note:

R$ million, in nominal terms
IT and SC calculated with 34% rate


3.d Valuation Results

Discounted Cash Flow - TIM Sul’s Valuation Range

The diagram to the right shows the composition of TIM Sul’s value and its sensitivity to both discount rate and nominal perpetuity growth rate

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation - TIM SUL

 
 
 
  A + B = C
 
 
 
Discount
Rate
NPV** of Free Cash Flows
(R$ thousand) 2004-2013
NPV** of Perpetuity Value (R$ thousand) at an
annual perpetuity growth rate
Total Enterprise Value (R$ thousand) at an annual
perpetuity growth rate




    4.18% 4.68% 5.18% 4.18% 4.68% 5.18%






16.1% 1,702,591.12 1,440,194.14 1,510,419.89 1,587,071.82 3,142,785.25 3,213,011.01 3,289,662.94
16.6% 1,662,862.34 1,328,172.30 1,390,488.18 1,458,256.94 2,991,034.63 3,053,350.52 3,121,119.28
17.1% 1,624,360.50 1,227,053.47 1,282,545.75 1,342,690.27 2,851,413.96 2,906,906.24 2,967,050.76
17.6% 1,587,039.62 1,135,518.55 1,185,095.94 1,238,662.48 2,722,558.17 2,772,135.56 2,825,702.09
18.1% 1,550,855.71 1,052,442.84 1,096,870.21 1,144,734.07 2,603,298.55 2,647,725.91 2,695,589.78


   
 
  - D = E
   
 
Discount
Rate
Net Debt
Position*
Equity Value (R$ thousand)



    4.18% 4.68% 5.18%
 


16.1% (336,296.00) 3,479,081.25 3,549,307.01 3,625,958.94
 
16.6% (336,296.00) 3,327,330.63 3,389,646.52 3,457,415.28
17.1% (336,296.00) 3,187,709.96 3,243,202.24 3,303,346.76
 
17.6% (336,296.00) 3,058,854.17 3,108,431.56 3,161,998.09
18.1% (336,296.00) 2,939,594.55 2,984,021.91 3,031,885.78
 

Note:  

*Net debt includes cash, marketable securities, short and long term debt, hedges and provisions for contingencies as of March 31, 2004
**NPV as of March 31, 2004


TSU Valuation - Value Range

The diagram to the right shows the composition of the equity value of Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A., which holds an equity interest of 81.3204% in the total capital of TIM Sul. The estimate includes book assets and liabilities as reflected in the Balance Sheet of TSU (controlling entity) of March 31, 2004

Economic Valuation - Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A. - TSU



Adjusted Balance Sheet of Tele Celular Sul (R$ thousand) March 31, 2004


Current Assets 37,987
Long-term Assets 1,444
Fixed Assets Considering Valuation of TIM Sul* 2,637,385


Total Assets 2,676,816


Current Liabilities 41,218
Long-term Liabilities 4,249
Adjusted Shareholder's Equity 2,631,349


Total Liabilities 2,676,816 


Equity Value of Tele Celular Sul Participações 2,631,349 
Considering a discount rate of 17.1% and a perpetuity growth rate of 4.68%  

 


    A / B = C  
 


Discount
Rate
Equity Value (R$ thousand) Shares (millions)** Equity Value per Share
(R$ per thousand shares)




  4.18% 4.68% 5.18%   4.18% 4.68% 5.18%








16.1% 2,823,166.79 2,880,274.66 2,942,608.31 356,478.47 7.919600 8.079800 8.254659
16.6% 2,699,762.58 2,750,438.11 2,805,547.93 356,478.47 7.573424 7.715580 7.870175
17.1% 2,586,222.49 2,631,349.04 2,680,258.80 356,478.47 7.254919 7.381509 7.518712
17.6% 2,481,436.45 2,521,752.98 2,565,313.50 356,478.47 6.960971 7.074068 7.196265
18.1% 2,384,454.05 2,420,582.56 2,459,505.64 356,478.47 6.688915 6.790263 6.899451

Note:  

*Fixed Assets considering the Valuation of TIM Sul reflect an equity interest of 81.3204% held by Tele Celular Sul Participações S.A. – TSU in TIM Sul
**Shares (millions) as of March 31, 2004


4 Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A. (TND)

4.a The Company - Overview

Company’s History

Company’s History

Applicable Regulations

Controlling Shareholders

Competitive Scenario

Market Positioning

4.b Market Assumptions

Demographic and Market Data – TIM Nordeste

The assumptions reflect an expectation of continuous growth in penetration rate in the region, reaching 29% at the end of the forecast period

Such growth should be motivated by a period of sustainable economic development in the region, associated to a rise in the competitive pressure attributed to the other competitors

Projections reflect the entry of a fourth operator in 2005, whose market share is expected to remain modest throughout the forecast period

Population and Penetration (at year end)

Note: Population in thousands of inhabitants, based on IBGE projections

Total Mobile Telephone Market (at year end)

Note: Thousands of subscribers

4.c Operating and Financial Assumptions – TIM Nordeste

Revenues

The projected increase in the subscriber base reflects a larger expansion of the pre-paid customer base

Subscriber Base (year-end)

Note: Thousands of subscribers

The expansion of the pre-paid customer base, and the migration of long-distance services to other operators, should limit ARPU growth

Average Revenue per User - ARPU

Note:  

In R$, in nominal terms
ARPU defined as the total net service revenue, divided by the average number of users during the reference year, expressed in monthly nominal R$

Revenues from the sale of handsets have relatively higher growth rate in the years 2005 to 2007, given the expected user migration from the TDMA to GSM technology

Revenues Breakdown

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

Operating Costs

The assumptions contemplate an increase in operating costs at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% between 2004 and 2013

The operating costs include those to be incurred with the renewal of the GSM radio frequency license beginning in 2008

Operating Costs

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

EBITDA

Economies of scale should facilitate an increase in EBITDA margin, from 35% in 2004, to 47% in 2013

EBITDA

Note: R$ million, in nominal terms

Capex

The peaks observed in the first years of the forecast period reflect the TND’s management assumptions regarding the migration from TDMA to GSM

Capex Forecast

Note:

R$ million, in nominal terms


Income Statement

The projections in the table to the right refer to TIM Nordeste Telecomunicações S.A., mobile telephone operator in the Northeast Region

INCOME STATEMENT – PROJECTIONS - TIM Nordeste Telecomunicações S.A.


Years ending on December 31 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013 

Income Statement Projection (R$ million)

Net Income 1,161  1,311  1,533  1,713  1,804  1,881  1,955  2,022  2,079  2,140 
Operating Expenses (756) (837) (986) (1,066) (1,045) (1,056) (1,081) (1,102) (1,116) (1,141)
EBITDA 405  473  546  647  759  825  873  920  963  999 
Margin (%) 34.9% 36.1% 35.6% 37.8% 42.1% 43.9% 44.7% 45.5% 46.3% 46.7%
Profit before IT and SC 228  261  415  560  668  737  782  855  954  1.045 
Net Earnings 174  199  317  419  441  486  516  564  630  689 

Note:

R$ million, in nominal terms

 

Net Earnings consider deferred taxes and tax loss carry-forwards as applicable

Cash Flow

The projections in the table to the right refer to TIM Nordeste Telecomunicações S.A., mobile operator in the Northeast Region

CASH FLOW – PROJECTIONS - TIM Nordeste Telecomunicações S.A.


Years ending on December 31 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013 

 
Free Cash Flow Projection (R$ million)

 
Earnings before Interest and Taxes 191  230  371  490  577  624  647  691  751  805 
(-) I.T and S.C. tax (65) (78) (126) (167) (196) (212) (220) (235) (255) (274)
(+) Depreciation and Amortization 211  243  175  157  182  201  226  230  212  194 
(-) Investments (311) (322) (321) (182) (169) (168) (178) (186) (194) (201)
(-) Changes in Working Capital (39) 36  (0) 23  19  16  26  35  30 

Free Cash Flow of the Company (13) 80  134  298  416  464  492  525  548  554 

Note:

R$ million, in nominal terms

 

Income Tax and Social Contribution calculated at a 34% rate

 

Free Cash Flow of the Company does not consider the tax incentives related to the Constitutive Reports nos. 0144/2003 and 0232/2003,

 

issued on 12/31/2003 by ADENE – Development Agency for the Northeast Region





4.d Valuation Results




Discounted Cash Flow – TIM Nordeste’s Valuation Range

The diagram to the right illustrates the composition of the equity value of TIM Nordeste and its value range due to variances in the discount and nominal perpetuity growth rates

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation - TIM Nordeste Telecomunicações S.A.

 
 
 
 
  A + B + C = D
 
 
 
 
Discount Rate NPV** of Free Cash Flows (R$ thousand) 2004-2013 NPV** of Fiscal Benefits of Adene (R$ thousand) NPV** of Terminal Value (R$ thousand) at an annual perpetuity growth rate Total Enterprise Value (R$ thousand) at an annual perpetuity growth rate


 
 
 
        4.18% 4.68% 5.18% 4.18% 4.68% 5.18%
         


 


16.1% 1,432,103.91 380,563.90 1,228,937.38 1,288,861.99 1,354,270.13 3,041,605.19 3,101,529.79 3,166,937.94
16.6% 1,397,868.79 374,126.32 1,133,347.61 1,186,522.61 1,244,350.62 2,905,342.73 2,958,517.73 3,016,345.74
17.1% 1,364,708.45 367,853.88 1,047,061.53 1,094,413.85 1,145,736.00 2,779,623.86 2,826,976.18 2,878,298.33
17.6% 1,332,582.41 361,741.33 968,953.54 1,011,258.60 1,056,967.66 2,663,277.28 2,705,582.34 2,751,291.40
18.1% 1,301,451.94 355,783.64 898,063.89 935,974.37 976,817.26  2,555,299.48 2,593,209.96 2,634,052.85


   
 
  - E = F
   
 
Discount Rate Net Debt Position* Equity Value (R$ thousand)

 
 
     4.18% 4.68% 5.18%
       


16.1% (202,334.97) 3,243,940.16 3,303,864.76 3,369,272.90
16.6% (202,334.97) 3,107,677.70 3,160,852.70 3,218,680.70
17.1% (202,334.97) 2,981,958.83 3,029,311.15 3,080,633.29
17.6% (202,334.97) 2,865,612.24 2,907,917.31 2,953,626.37
18.1% (202,334.97) 2,757,634.44 2,795,544.92 2,836,387.81

Note:

*Net debt position includes cash, marketable securities, long and short term debt, hedges, provisions for contingencies and payment of withdrawal rights in the amount of R$ 31.5 million on April 8, 2004

 

** NPV on March 31, 2004

TND Valuation – Value Range

The diagram to the right illustrates the formation of the equity value of Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A., which holds an equity interest of 81.3799% in the total capital of TIM Nordeste. The estimate includes book assets and liabilities as reflected in the Balance Sheet of TND (controlling entity) of March 31, 2004

Economic Valuation - Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A. - TND


Adjusted Balance Sheet of Tele Nordeste Celular (R$ thousand) March 31, 2004 

Current Assets 34,659 
Long-term Assets 7,556 
Fixed Assets Considering Valuation of TIM Nordeste* 2,467,522 

Total Assets 2,509,737 

Current Liabilities 50,973 
Long-term Liabilities 2,669 
Adjusted Shareholder's Equity 2,456,095 

Total Liabilities 2,509,737 



Equity Value of Tele Nordeste Celular 2,456,095
Considering a discount rate of 17.2% and a perpetuity growth rate of 4.68%


 
 
 
  A / B = C
 
 
 
Discount Rate Equity Value (R$ thousand) Shares (million)*  Equity Value per share (R$ per thousand shares)


 
 
  4.18% 4.68% 5.18%   4.18% 4.68% 5.18%




 
 


16.1% 2,630,760.26 2,679,526.84 2,732,755.92 359,268.49 7.322547 7.458285 7.606445
16.6% 2,519,870.00 2,563,143.76 2,610,204.14 359,268.49 7.013891 7.134341 7.265330
17.1% 2,417,560.11 2,456,095.38 2,497,861.29 359,268.49 6.729118 6.836379 6.952631
17.6% 2,322,877.38 2,357,305.20 2,394,503.18 359,268.49 6.465575 6.561403 6.664941
18.1% 2,235,005.15 2,265,856.66 2,299,094.57 359,268.49 6.220989 6.306862 6.399377

Note:

*Fixed Assets considered in the valuation of TIM Nordeste reflect an equity interest of 81.3799% held by Tele Nordeste Celular Participações S.A. – TND in TIM Nordeste. It also includes R$ 2,272 thousand in fixed assets of the controlling company

 

**Shares (million) on March 31, 2004




5  Implied Exchange Ratio




Implied Exchange Ratio




6   Glossary




Glossary


SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.



  TELE CELULAR SUL PARTICIPACTES, S.A.
 
Date: August 19, 2004 By: /s/ Paulo Roberto Cruz Cozza
    Name: Paulo Roberto Cruz Cozza
    Title: Chief Financial Officer