BT (LON: BT.A) share price is not doing well. It has dropped for two straight months and is sitting near its lowest level since 2012. The stock is down by 70% from its highest point in 2015 and by over 81% from its highest level on record. This means that investors who bought shares worth £10,000 in 2016 have dropped to £3,000.
Why the BT stock has collapsedThere are a few reasons why shares of BT Group have plunged in the past few decades. First, this performance is in line with that of other big telecom companies globally. Vodafone, its biggest comparison in the FTSE 100 index, has also plunged and is hovering at its lowest levels since 1997.
In the United States, AT&T shares are about 25% below their highest point in 2020. Comcast and Verizon have also retreated by double-digits from their all-time highs. Similarly, in Europe, other telecom companies are in a deep bear market.
Second, BT Group’s underperformance is because its revenue growth has struggled in the past few years. Its total revenue peaked in 2018 when it made $31.47 billion. The most recent results showed that its annual revenues stood at more than $20.68 billion. BT Group’s profitability growth has also lagged.
Third, its performance is a reflection of the UK economic decline. Data published on Thursday showed that the UK moved into a technical recession in the fourth quarter. This is important for BT Group because, unlike Vodafone, it focuses on the UK. As such, the company’s growth may remain under pressure in the coming months.
Further, BT, like other companies, has been forced to spend billions of pounds in infrastructure in the past few years. It is spending billions for its Openreach and 5G solutions, and the returns will likely take time to materialize.
The most recent trading statement showed that the company’s growth has not been good, especially in its vulnerable business division. Revenue came in at £15.7 billion, a 3% increase from £15.3 billion in the previous year. Its Business services adjusted EBITDA dropped by 13% to £6.12 billion.
BT share price forecast
Technical analysis can help us predict whether the BT stock price will recover any time soon. On the monthly chart, we see that the stock has now moved below the key support at 104.80p, its lowest swing in December 2022. The shares have moved below the lower side of the symmetrical triangle pattern.
Therefore, the outlook for BT shares is bearish as sellers target the key support at 82.68p, its lowest swing in 2020. A break below that level will see it continue retreating in the coming months. For now, I don’t see how the shares will recover.
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