The USD/RUB exchange rate jumped to an important resistance point after Alexei Navalny’s death. It jumped to a high of 93.08, which was much higher than the January low of 86.57 as the focus turned to the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes.
Russia’s economy is boomingThe USD/RUB pair has slipped by about 10% from its highest point in 2023 as the Russian economy continued to defy estimates. This performance is primarily because the price of crude oil has remained high in the past few months.
Brent, the global benchmark, was trading at $83 while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $79. Russian urals have remained above the $60 price target that was set by European and American authorities after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Russia is still selling thousands of barrels of oil every day, helped by obscure trading companies that took over after Western firms like Vitol and Trafigura abandoned the country. Most of Russia’s oil is flowing to Asian, African, and even European countries.
Other economic numbers reveal that the economy is doing well. The most recent report by S&P Global showed that the manufacturing PMI stood at 52.40 in January, meaning that it is growing. Similarly, services PMIs came in at 55.8 in January, a positive sign. This performance is much better than in most European countries.
Further, the country’s manufacturing production is growing at a fast pace as the country invests in weapons. All this has brought the unemployment rate near a record low. Inflation is also moderating as the central bank has delivered several rate hikes. Russian stocks are also doing well.
Looking ahead, the next important USD/RUB news will likely be the upcoming FOMC minutes, which will provide more hints about the state of the economy. They will also guide what to happen in the next few meetings.
USD/RUB technical analysis
The daily chart reveals that the USD/RUB pair has been in a strong recovery in the past few days. It has jumped to a high of 93.07, where it struggled to move above in December last year. The pair has moved slightly above the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud.
Most importantly, there are signs that the pair has formed a rising wedge pattern, a popular sign of a bearish reversal. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will have a bearish breakout in the coming weeks. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at 86.57, the lowest point in January. A move above 93.07 will invalidate the bearish view.
The post USD/RUB: Chart pattern points to a Russian ruble rebound appeared first on Invezz
