So far, so good . ATVI missed by quite a bit yesterday and only fell from $79 to $78. They are trading at about 20 times earnings and it's good to see that the market doesn't seem to consider that too much since that's on the low end of most stocks' valuations these days. KO beat and went nowhere, WHR beat last night and has a pre-market bump this morning but MMM not getting love off their 15% beat while ADM is crushing it on their 25% beat . GLW is blasting higher, DHI is popping, GE is getting no love on their 20% beat, IVZ missed and is getting punished, JBLU beat but still losing 0.80 per $13.20 (now $12.80) share – so getting what they deserve. NVS being punished for being inline, PEP down on a small beat, BPOP jumping (we just added them), RTX loving the war with a 10% beat but not getting loved back by traders, SHW flying higher on unexpected beat, UPS is humming along, VLO had a great Q – as expected and WBD (spun off from T) looks good in their first report. It takes us a week or two to figure out how traders are likely to react and THEN we get to prognosticate over what we feel companies are likely to earn. This early on it's just folly to bet on earnings as both the results and the subsequent reactions are total wildcards. On top of that we have a fluid macro environment where, on any given day, Covid can be better or worse, the War can be more or less brutal, Inflation can be more or less brutal, etc… That makes it very difficult to make good calls, so we generally abstain. Sometimes we catch over or under-reactions and those are fun to bet on but, so far, only the NFLX selling seems egregious and we're waiting for the dust to settle on that one still. We shorted NFLX at $600 as that was silly but that doesn't mean $200 can't be silly as well – after all, $200 is $93Bn in market cap and NFLX makes $5Bn a year so we're talking 18.5x earnings and yes, they lost subscribers but…
So far, so good.
ATVI missed by quite a bit yesterday and only fell from $79 to $78. They are trading at about 20 times earnings and it's good to see that the market doesn't seem to consider that too much since that's on the low end of most stocks' valuations these days. KO beat and went nowhere, WHR beat last night and has a pre-market bump this morning but MMM not getting love off their 15% beat while ADM is crushing it on their 25% beat.
GLW is blasting higher, DHI is popping, GE is getting no love on their 20% beat, IVZ missed and is getting punished, JBLU beat but still losing 0.80 per $13.20 (now $12.80) share – so getting what they deserve. NVS being punished for being inline, PEP down on a small beat, BPOP jumping (we just added them), RTX loving the war with a 10% beat but not getting loved back by traders, SHW flying higher on unexpected beat, UPS is humming along, VLO had a great Q – as expected and WBD (spun off from T) looks good in their first report.
It takes us a week or two to figure out how traders are likely to react and THEN we get to prognosticate over what we feel companies are likely to earn. This early on it's just folly to bet on earnings as both the results and the subsequent reactions are total wildcards. On top of that we have a fluid macro environment where, on any given day, Covid can be better or worse, the War can be more or less brutal, Inflation can be more or less brutal, etc…
That makes it very difficult to make good calls, so we generally abstain. Sometimes we catch over or under-reactions and those are fun to bet on but, so far, only the NFLX selling seems egregious and we're waiting for the dust to settle on that one still. We shorted NFLX at $600 as that was silly but that doesn't mean $200 can't be silly as well – after all, $200 is $93Bn in market cap and NFLX makes $5Bn a year so we're talking 18.5x earnings and yes, they lost subscribers but…
