GDP at 8:30.
The expert panel of leading Economorons believes that the 3rd Revision to Q4 will show we had 7% growth – the same as it was last time but I think a bit will be shaved off as the later Decemeber data had a bit more Covid in it (hard to remember with all the crap that's happened since, isn't it?).
More to the point, the Atlanta Fed says GDP growth has dropped to 1% in Q1 (Economorons say 3%) so we KNOW GDP is heading lower – it's just a question of when it starts to do so. What will the market's reaction be? We'll find out after the 8:30 data. Oil prices averaged $75 in Oct, Nov and December last year and we've been over $100 all of March and over $80 since the year began but is that good for GDP (we produce a lot of oil) or bad for it (we use a lot of oil)?
Last night's API Report showed a 3Mb draw in Oil, -1.5Mb of Gasoline and -200,000 barrels of Distillates and that's popped us back from $103 yesterday to $107 this morning but now that the draw is baked in, I like Oil (/CL) Futures short at $107 with tight stops above as we can easiliy drop back to $105, which would be a gain of $2,000 per contract.
Our indexes have gained so much for the month that we are back to using our Retracement Chart (from the All-Time Highs) as opposed to our Bounce Chart (from 20% corrections), so that's progress – kind of. Unfortunately, the Retracement Chart still has a lot of red – which means those 20% drops are still in pay.
- Dow 36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong)
- S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong)
- Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong)
- Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)
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The Russell is on the cusp so it needs to show us something this week and the Nasdaq is our lagging index otherwise – not…
