Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
November 10, 2011
Winter Issue of Kingdom Magazine editorial
As the holidays approach, many of us will once again face the impossible task of
deciding what gifts to get family and friends. Rather than going with the old standards of
cash or jewelry for those closest to you, why not give a gift that appreciatesand which
manages to add a bit of sparkle to your holiday season as well? This year, the best
presents will be colored gold.
Its been used to crown kings, reward the highest achievements and pledge true love.
Gold, it is said, is one thing that never goes out of style. For the last ten years or so, its
also one of the few investments thats not only held its value, but has actually
appreciated. Understanding whyand understanding how the gold market can change
is something to which the people at State Street Global Advisors (SSgA) are committed.
Here, in text adapted from a paper by SSgAs Senior Portfolio Manager Chris
Goolgasian, we offer a bit of their knowledge on the weighty subject, and suggest a few
good reasons why you might consider adding a bit of glitter to your holiday season.
Getting a handle on how gold is valued isnt easy, and SSgAs position is that its almost
impossible to connect the price of the precious metal to any live piece of economic data.
Unlike a stock market guess, which can be grounded in a valuation approachmake a
guess on earnings, guess what investors will pay for the earnings, and there you are
establishing a value for gold is a bit more tricky.
Making it harder is the fact that gold provides no immediate earnings, no cash flow, no
dividends or interest and no prospects for any, ever. Additionally, it actually costs money
to own gold: storage and security arent free. So how does one value gold?
There are a number of ways that people try, using various valuation constructs, but
theyre problematic. Three such constructs that are somewhat well received in the U.S.
marketplace include the inflation-adjusted price of gold, the value of the total gold stock
relative to the U.S. monetary base, and the value of the total gold stock relative to the
U.S. equity market cap. Heres a quick look at them, followed by a better solution for
assessing gold investment.
Inflation
Gold can be called a defensive asset because, in an inflationary world, paper dollars
lose value every day while hard assets, such as metals, land, energy and agriculture do
not. They cannot be created, conjured or otherwise diluted, thus they wont ever lose
value. The value of gold in this instance is bid up because it will lose less than paper
assets, and thus its price rises purely because its defensive.
In terms of tying its value to inflation, there are several scenarios that make it
understandable. For one, the people buying gold are presumably always earning more,
keeping their income in line with inflation. It makes sense that premium items, such as
jewelry, will keep pace with that income. On the industrial side, mining operations are
compelled to deal with inflationary costs of labor and equipment, and so here, too, it
makes sense that the price of the metal theyre mining would increase accordingly.
Ultimately, even within these examples, the price of gold rises with inflation because it is
desired. Is it needed? Not really, but thats irrelevant. Its appeal is longstanding and well
established. As a medium of exchange theres merit to gold keeping pace with inflation as
well. Governments may print money all they like, adjusting the value of individual notes in
dramatic fashion. But because gold cannot be created and because there is a relatively fixed
supply, golds value sensibly rises with inflation.
Other Valuations
One might try to arrive at a value for gold via other routes as well, two of them being the
relation of the U.S. monetary base to the value of the gold held by the U.S. Government, and the
valuation of gold relative to the value of the U.S. equities, via the Wilshire 5000. Both of these
valuation models have issues. The latter method is based on work (verified by SSgA) that has shown
that gold has peaked at 160% of the value of the Wilshire, while more recently it has traded at
near 60% of it. Does the prior peak have any significance? Not really. Theres no indications the
peak will or should occur again in the future.
As for tying the value of gold to the U.S. monetary base, previous research has found that value of
gold peaked at over one times the monetary base. Why this matters is again problematic. Why the
U.S. holdings relative to the U.S. monetary base? Why not other holdings? And why should gold
achieve the same peak relative to the base that it has in the past? Theres no good reason why it
should.
Time Better Spent
At the end of the day, gold is worth what it is because others are willing to pay for it. SSgAs
position is that trying to find a magic formula to value gold is as useful as trying to create a
similar system for valuing a painting. Its impossible. The time is much better spent trying to
understand the mood of the people who are willing to pay for gold, and thats exactly what SSgAs
team does. Each month the team produces an internal research note based on assessments of what
they call observables, factors that SSgA believes effect the markets mood on gold. They count
nearly three dozen such factors, and they believe their system of assessing these observables is
infinitely better than constructing questionable valuation models. So far, theyve been right.
As An Investment
There are a number of reasons why keeping gold in your portfolio is a good idea. First off, its
likely that well eventually see some advances in products and portfolio protection that involve
gold. It might come to pass that your brokerage account may be translated into gold instead of
U.S. dollars. There are hedge fund managers who do this already, including John Paulson, offering
share classes of their funds denominated in gold. Its said that Paulson, specifically, keeps
almost all of his personal holdings in this share class, disliking holding dollars as they are.
So how much gold should an individual keep? SSgA turns to industry data for direction, such as
that provided by this years World Gold Council report The Strategic Case for Gold, which found
that gold comprised just one percent of the worlds total global assets. From a practical
standpoint, when SSgA is working with an institutional client they also consider investment
policy constraints and tracking error goals. In those
portfolios that are tactically able to hold gold, they hold in the low- to mid-single digits. But
how to fund the gold: fixed income or equities? In fact, SSgA recommends dynamic funding from both
portfolios, with other tactical views dictating the allocations. Its a complicated subject, gold.
Valuation methods are difficult to find and perhaps often irrelevant, strategies abound as to how
best to implement it into a portfolio and understanding its effect on a portfolioeven as an
inflation hedging vehicle or as a safe haven of sortsrequires serious study. Thankfully, the team
at SSgA is best equipped to answer any questions on the subject, and we at Kingdom recommend them
on the subject. If you havent already incorporated gold into your or your familys portfolio, we
believe the holidays offer the perfect opportunity to add a golden glow to your assets.
Find out more at www.spdrs.com or www.spdrgoldshares.com.
SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the
SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the
prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with the SEC for
more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these documents for free
by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust or any Authorized
Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll free at
1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Attn:
SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.