fwp
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
August 4, 2010
An Overview of Gold: For Now, Its Golden
BY TOM ANDERSON, CFA, HEAD OF STRATEGY AND RESEARCH, INTERMEDIARY BUSINESS GROUP, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS
On November 3, 2009, India stunned the world when its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India,
purchased 200 tons of gold, worth $6.7 billion and equal to approximately 8 percent of the worlds
annual gold-mine production. The purchase, considered the largest by a central bank in 30 years,
was viewed by many as a signal governments around the world are becoming increasingly
uncomfortable about the sliding value of the US dollar.1
The short-term impact of Indias purchase from the
International Monetary Fund was to propel the spot price of
gold in nominal terms to a new record high of $1,085 per
ounce on that day. Subsequently, gold reached a 2009 peak
price of $1,226 an ounce on December 3, falling to $1,097
an ounce by year end.
On an inflation-adjusted basis, the spot price of gold
remains well below the interim month high of $873 an ounce
hit on January 21, 1980, a time when the rate of inflation
in the US was heading towards 20% and investors were
worrying about the Soviet presence in Afghanistan and the
fallout from the Iranian Revolution.
India was not the only large buyer of gold in 2009.
Numerous institutions have been attracted by the investment
attributes of gold as a diversifier, as a safe haven
during volatile times and as a hedge against inflation and
dollar weakness. Hedge funds, asset managers,
broker/dealers, pension funds and endowments have all
turned to gold as exemplified by their holdings in gold
exchange traded products (ETPs). SPDR® Gold
Shares, for example, held $40.2 billion in gold bullion as
of December 31, 2009 for a similar cross section of
institutional investors ranging from hedge funds to
endowments.
Acknowledging the appeal and challenges for an
institutional investor of investing in gold, Shayne
McGuire, Managing Director and Head of Global Research at
the Teachers Retirement System of Texas, recently said,
Within a portfolio setting, gold can make tremendous
sense. In their September 30, 2009 13F filing, the
Teachers Retirement System of Texas said they had
increased their position in SPDR Gold Shares by $144
million. According to McGuire, we added gold as a
tactical position for a number of reasons. We see gold
benefiting from increased central bank purchases, from
rising affluence in Asian countries, from continuing
weakness in the US dollar, and from limited supply from
mining production.
However, despite golds stunning performance in recent
years as its benefited from tight supply and strong
demand, it should be remembered that gold has not always
performed that well as an investment. From its January
1980 peak, the price of gold subsequently declined to
trade mostly in the narrow $300 to $400 an ounce range
for the next two decades. In fact, it took nearly twenty
seven years for the price of gold to top its 1980 peak
on January 9, 2008. As well see, the ups and downs of
the price of gold are determined by many hard-to-predict
variables that can impact the fragile balance between
supply and demand.
FIGURE 1: HISTORICAL PRICE OF GOLD (US$/OZ, END OF
PERIOD) AND REAL GOLD PRICE (JAN 1974 = 100)
Source: Global Insight, World Gold Council.
THE VARYING SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS OF GOLD
Like oil, gold supply is impacted by the ability of
producers to identify and deliver newly mined gold to the
market. Unlike oil, however, gold is not consumed or
destroyed in its use, and there is the ability to recycle
above-ground stocks to add to supply. Central banks, or the
so-called official sector, are significant owners of gold
reserves and also return a certain amount of supply to the
market each year. Over the 5 year period (20042008), 59%
of gold supply came from newly mined production, 28% from
recycling of fabricated products such as jewelry, and 13%
from net official sector sales.
continued on next page
Gold mining takes place on every continent except
Antarctica. The supply sources are more geographically
diverse than ever before, with China, the United States,
South Africa and Australia all producing between 200 and
300 tons each of newly mined gold in 2008. However, mine
production has declined since 2001, from a high of nearly
2,650 tons to just over 2,400 tons in 2008.
Because gold is virtually indestructible, practically all
of the gold that has ever been mined still exists. Of the
163,000 tons of above ground stocks of gold currently
estimated to be in existence, the GFMS Group calculates
that 51% is held in the form of jewelry, 18% is in the
hands of the official sector, 17% is with investors, 12%
is in industrial products and 2% is unaccounted for.
Official sector supply stands at 28,700 tons, down from
the 38,000 tons in the 1960s. From 1980 through the third
quarter of 1999, many central banks systematically reduced
their gold holdings which was a major factor in depressing
the price of gold in those two decades.
However, in September 1999, a group of European Central
Banks signed the first Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA1)
to limit official sector gold sales to 400 tons a year for
five years. CBGA2 was signed in 2004, and in August 2009,
a third five-year CBGA agreement was announced, reducing
the annual ceiling to 400 tons which includes the IMFs
planned sale of 403 tons, half of which was already
purchased by the Reserve Bank of India.
FIGURE 2: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FLOWS FOR GOLD
5-YEAR AVERAGE SUPPLY FLOWS (2004-2008)
Source: GFMS, World Gold Council
Gold demand comes from three sources: jewelry,
industry and investment. In the five years from 2004
through 2008, annual demand for gold was 3,599 tons on
average. The primary source of demand comes from jewelry,
accounting for 68% of total demand over the five years.
Investment demand, which includes both retail demand
largely gold coins and bars and ETPs, accounted for 20%
of aggregate demand during the same 2004-2008 period.
Industrial demand, which comprises electronics
consumption as well as medical and dental uses,
represented the remaining 12%.
The demand factors can vary considerably from year to
year. In 2008, for example, jewelry demand fell
dramatically to 62% from the average 68% of total demand,
reflecting the poor economic environment.
However, even as jewelry demand fell in 2008, investment
demand rose to 25% from the average 20% of total demand as
gold was used as a safe haven investment. Overall
investment demand has more than tripled since 2004, much
of it driven by the availability of gold exchange traded
funds.
THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR GOLD: A POSITIVE PRICE OUTLOOK
AND DIVERSIFICATION BENEFITS
As with any asset class, investors turn to gold for
both tactical and strategic investment reasons. The
tactical case has been driven by the positive price outlook
associated with strong demand and tight supply for gold.
The strategic case is driven by the investment
diversification benefits of gold.
GOLD AS A PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFIER
One of the most compelling reasons to own gold is to
help diversify a portfolio. Golds diversification
benefits are manifold. As can be seen in Figure 3 below,
golds correlations are exceptionally low to traditional
equities and bonds as well as to broader commodity
indexes.
FIGURE 3: GOLD CORRELATION TO MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
(INCLUDING THE US DOLLAR INDEX)
10 YEAR CORRELATIONS WITH GOLD (OCTOBER 1999-SEPTEMBER 2009)
Source: Zephyr Style Advisor, SSgA Strategy & Research.
continued on next page
www.spdru.com
GOLD AS AN INFLATION HEDGE
Gold has been used as a hedge against inflation for
centuries. Since 1973, when the price of gold became
free-floating, gold has provided an annualized real rate
of return of 1.8% over the US consumer price index (CPI).
Gold has tended to see its strongest price performance in
years of high inflation such as 1980, providing an average
real return of 14.9% in years in which CPI has been
greater than 5%.
GOLD AS A DOLLAR HEDGE
Gold has historically demonstrated an inverse
relationship to the dominant global currency currently
the US dollar. Over the past 10 years, the correlation of
gold to the US Dollar Index, a trade-weighted basket of
non-US currencies, was -0.49.
GOLD AS A SAFE HAVEN ASSET
Gold has long enjoyed a reputation as a safe haven
asset and tends to trigger investor interest during
periods of uncertainty. The market crisis of 2008 was no
exception. The price of gold rose for the eighth
consecutive year, climbing 4.3% in a year in which the
S&P® 500 fell 37%, MSCI EAFE dropped 43%, and
broader commodity indexes such as the S&P GSCI Index fell
43%.
FOR NOW, ITS GOLDEN
So at least for now, the overview for gold is golden.
But as golds history tells us, that can always change
and change very quickly.
ETF RESOURCES AT STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS
STRATEGY & RESEARCH
The Strategy & Research group is responsible for the
development of research and content for the ETF
marketplace. With a focus on educating financial
intermediaries about the ETF market, the team assists
investment professionals in the development of ETF
solutions for their clients. Additionally, the group
provides investment professionals with investment research
and support services on exchange traded funds, mutual
funds and separate accounts.
To contact State Streets Strategy & Research team,
email sr@ssga.com.
SPDR UNIVERSITY
Brought to you by State Streets family of SPDR
ETFs, SPDR University is a free online educational
resource dedicated to providing investment professionals
with the education and training they need to stay ahead
of the market and be precisely in tune with their
clients. Log on to SPDR University to access rich
educational content and start earning CE credits
anytime, from anywhere. Download client-ready materials,
webcasts, interactive presentations, succinct materials,
audiocasts, and research papers.
To register, go to www.spdru.com today.
ETF SALES AND MARKETING
For more information about our ETFs or how to
invest, please call 866.787.2257.
WEB RESOURCES
For rich ETF content and comprehensive
information on our ETFsplease visit: www.spdrs.com.
PORTFOLIO TOOLS
THE SSGA PORTFOLIO ANALYZER is a web-based portfolio
analysis and proposal tool that enables investment
professionals to quickly evaluate and assess an
investment portfolio.
THE SSGA PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTORSM is a comprehensive web-based
portfolio design and proposal tool that enables investment
professionals to model, analyze, and construct portfolios
utilizing a variety of investment products and investor
profiles. It provides a greater level of detail, analysis
and functionality than the SSgA Portfolio Analyzer.
THE SSGA CORRELATION TRACKER is a web-based
tool that allows investors to view the correlation of two
or more ETFs and stocks using historical pricing
information.
To use our web tools, visit: www.spdrs.com.
BLOOMBERG PAGE
SPDR
www.spdru.com
continued on next page
State Street Global Advisors
State Street Financial Center
One Lincoln Street
Boston, MA 02111
866.787.2257
1 Alia McMullen, India Propels Gold to New High, Financial Post, November 4, 2009.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC.
This material is for your private information. The views expressed in this material are the
views of SSgA through the period ended December 30, 2009 and are subject to change based on market
and other conditions. The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should
not be relied on as such. All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but
its accuracy is not guaranteed. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed
forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future
performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing in gold, commodities or other precious metals is a speculative activity. Prices are
affected by factors such as cyclical economic conditions, political events and monetary policies of
various countries. Gold, commodities and other precious metals are also subject to governmental
action for political reasons. Markets, therefore, may be volatile and there may be sharp
fluctuations in prices.
WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL MCGRAW-HILL HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY
SPECIAL PUNITIVE, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS),
EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGES.
This material must be delivered with a prospectus. The prospectus contains material information
about the SPDR® Gold Trust (the Trust) and the SPDR® Gold Shares (the
Shares) which is material and/or which may be important to you. You should read the entire
prospectus, including Risk Factors before making an investment decision about the Shares.
The Trust has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC for the offering
to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that
registration statement and other documents the Trust has filed with the SEC for more complete
information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting
EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust, or any underwriter or any
dealer participating in the offering, will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by
calling toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln
Street, Attn: SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.
Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This document includes forward-looking statements which generally relate to future events or
future performance. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such
as may, will, should, expect, plan, anticipate, believe, estimate, predict,
potential or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All statements (other
than statements of historical fact) included in this document that address activities, events or
developments that will or may occur in the future, including such matters as changes in commodity
prices and market conditions (for gold and the Shares), the Trusts operations, the plans of the
World Gold Trust Services LLC (the Sponsor) and references to the Trusts future success and
other similar matters are forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that these statements
are only projections. Actual events or results may differ materially. These statements are based
upon certain assumptions and analyses the Sponsor made based on its perception of historical
trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors believed
appropriate in the circumstances. Whether or not actual results and developments will conform to
the Sponsors expectations and predictions, however, is subject to a number of risks and
uncertainties, including, but not limited to fluctuations in the price of gold; reductions in the
amount of gold represented by each Share due to the payment of Trust expenses and the impact of the
termination of the fee reduction under the Trust Indenture; purchasing activity in the gold market
associated with the purchase of Baskets, or blocks of 100,000 shares, from the Trust; unanticipated
operational or trading problems; the lack associated with ownership of shares; the lack of a market
for the Shares; the level of support from the World Gold Council; competition from other methods of
investing in gold; the impact of large-scale distress sales of gold in times of crisis; the impact
of substantial sales of gold by the official sector; the effect of a widening of interest rate
differentials between the cost of money and the cost of gold; the loss, damage, theft or
restrictions on access to the Trusts gold; the lack of adequate sources of recovery if the Trusts
gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed, including a lack of insurance; the failure of gold
bullion allocated to the Trust to meet the London Good Delivery Standards; the failure of
sub-custodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trusts gold; the limited ability of
The Bank of New York Mellon (the Trustee) and HSBC (the Custodian) to take legal action against
sub-custodians; the insolvency of the Custodian; the Trusts obligation to reimburse the Purchaser
and State Street Global Markets, LLC (the Marketing Agent) for certain liabilities in the event
the Sponsor fails to indemnify them; competing claims over ownership of intellectual property
rights related to the Trust; and other factors identified in the Risk Factors section of the
Prospectus filed with the SEC and in other filings made by the Trust from time to time with the
SEC. Consequently, all the forward-looking statements made in this material are qualified by these
cautionary statements, and there can be no assurance that the actual results or developments the
Sponsor or Marketing Agent anticipates will be realized or, even if substantially realized, that
they will result in the expected consequences to, or have the expected effects on, the Trusts
operations or the value of the Shares. Neither the Sponsor, Marketing Agent nor any other person
assumes responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the forward-looking statements. Neither
the Trust, Marketing Agent nor the Sponsor is under a duty to update any of the forward-looking
statements to conform such statements to actual results or to reflect a change in the Sponsors or
Marketing Agents
expectat
ion or projections.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by the Trust (less Trust
expenses) and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially adversely affect an investment in
the Shares.
Investors should be aware that there is no assurance that gold will maintain its long-term value in
terms of purchasing power in the future. In the event that the price of gold declines, the Sponsor
expects the value of an investment in the Shares to similarly decline proportionately.
Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value
Shareholders of the Trust will not have the protections associated with ownership of shares in an
investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or the protections afforded
by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936. The Trust is not registered as an investment company under
the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not required to register under such act. Neither the
Sponsor nor the Trustee of the Trust is subject to regulation by the CFTC. Shareholders will not
have the regulatory protections provided to investors in CEA-regulated instruments or commodity
pools.
For more complete information, please call 866.320.4053
or visit www.spdrgoldshares.com today.
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of
principal.
The Barclays Capital Global Treasury ex-U.S. is a trademark of Barclays Capital, Inc.
Dow Jones, Dow Jones U.S. Select REITSM, are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have
been licensed for use for certain purposes by State Street Global Advisors (SSgA).
Standard & Poors S&P Indices are registered trademarks of Standard & Poors, a division of The
McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
The SPDR® trademark is used under license from The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
(McGraw-Hill). No financial product offered by State Street Corporation or its affiliates is
sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by McGraw-Hill.
Distributor: State Street Global Markets, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC, a wholly owned subsidiary of
State Street Corporation.
Before investing, consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. To
obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus which contains this and other information, call
1.866.787.2257 or visit www.spdrs.com. Read it carefully.
© 2010 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. IBG-1353 Exp. Date: 4/30/2010 IBG.EDU.OOG.0210
www.spdru.com
First
issued: February 22, 2010. This Free Writing Prospectus is being filed in reliance on Rule
164(b).
SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should
read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with
the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these
documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust
or any Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling
toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street,
Attn: SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.